Any Inspection is Manipulable
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Any Inspection Is Manipulable
A forecaster provides a probabilistic prediction regarding the following day’s state of nature. To examine the forecaster, an inspector employs calibration tests that compare the average prediction and the empirical frequency of pre-specified events. This paper shows that any mixed test can be manipulated in the sense that, independently of the state realizations, the difference between the ave...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Econometrica
سال: 2001
ISSN: 0012-9682,1468-0262
DOI: 10.1111/1468-0262.00244